Are U.S. airlines really in crisis?

This study reflects on the technical efficiency of U.S. airlines using a Bayesian random stochastic frontier model. Inferences from the Bayesian estimation indicate that the random model fits the data well and outperforms the traditional stochastic frontier model. The technical efficiency results indicate that U.S. airlines are operating at a declining efficiency rate with an average of 69.02% in 2007. Results from returns to scale are also in line with the efficiency results. More specific discussions on the current industry trends and other contributions of this study are presented and discussed.     

The evolution of exchange

Stochastic stability is applied to the problem of exchange. We analyze the stochastic stability of two dynamic trading processes in a simple housing market. In both models, traders meet in pairs at random and exchange their houses when trade is mutually beneficial, but occasionally they make mistakes. The models differ in the probability of mistakes. When all mistakes are equally likely, the set of stochastically stable allocations contains the set of efficient allocations. When more serious mistakes are less likely, the stochastically stable states are those allocations, always efficient, with the lowest envy level.     

The Global Disconnect: The Role of Transactional Distance and Scale Economies in Gravity Equations

Recent empirical analyses show that asset flows can be modelled by the same 'gravity' equations that trade economists have used so successfully for the past few decades. This is something of a surprise. Trade economists do not yet have a unified theory of why gravity models should work‐and the situation is worse for asset flows. Reasonable theories would predict that greater distance between countries should generate more asset flows rather than less as the econometric results seem to consistently show. In this paper we discuss how host and source country GDPs, language, and distance the core explanatory variables in the traditional gravity models‐fare in trade and asset flows estimations. While the 'distance puzzle' is not resolved, it is considerably reduced by going beyond consideration of physical distance to concepts of transactional distance and scale economies.     

The role of saving and investment in exchange rate determination under alternative monetary mechanisms

We argue that the demand for national currencies depends on existing payment arrangements for imports and exports. Therefore, exchange rate movements depend on these arrangement. As a result, the relationship between exchange rate movements and various macroeconomic aggregates — like saving and investment — depend on what we call the monetary mechanism. These points are explicitly demonstrated by studying two extreme monetary mechanisms, one in which all payments are done with the seller's currency and one in which all payments are done with the buyer's currency.     

Factor Mobility and Income Growth: Two Convergence Hypotheses

While technologies and policy fundamentals are presumably different internationally, inducing differences in growth rates, capital mobility can be a powerful force in equalizing output growth rates across countries. The paper provides some indirect evidence in support of this effect. In the context of regional growth, however, labor mobility can potentially equalize income levels across regions in the presence of human capital externalities. Supporting evidence is found for this effect, revealing that restrictions on labor flows tend to make per capita incomes more divergent across nations and/or regions.     

The effects of indexation of wage contracts on macro-economic stability

The paper develops a simple analytical framework in which the shortrun affects of wage indexation on the dynamic stability of inflation can be analyzed. It consists of a unlonized labor market faced by a competitive demand. Without indexation, the wage contract is based upon the union's prediction of the price level during the period of the contract. With indexation, the same objective is achieved by contracting only once at some initial period, subject to the stipulation that the nominal wage is linked to the price level. The main result is that when the demand for money is sensitive to changes in the expected rate of inflation, nominal variables like prices and wages are more likely to yield an unstable dynamic response with wage indexation, thus endangering the monetary system.     

Stochastic prices and tests of efficiency of foreign exchange markets

This paper shows that typical specifications of efficiency tests of foreign exchange markets are strictly valid only when individuals are risk neutral and prices are non-stochastic. Empirically, however, the neglect of these factors is shown to be of little significance.